Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Preview
The Celtics have a chance to close out this first-round series with a win at home on Wednesday night. Heading into game five, they are up 3-1 in the series over the Heat. Tip-off is at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston and you can catch the game on TNT. The Celtics are favored by 13.5 points and are -1101 on the money line. As for the Heat, they are +679 on the money line, and the over/under line is 198.5 points.
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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Head-to-Head and Key Stats
When looking back on the last three head-to-head matchups between Miami and Boston, the Celtics hold the edge with a record of 2-1. Not only does the team have the better record, but they have won in convincing fashion, posting an average scoring differential of 8 points.
- Across their last five road contests, Miami has a 4-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 108 points per game.
- When looking at their past three matchups at home, Boston has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 99 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
- In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
- In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-1-1 in these scenarios.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction
The Celtics picked up a 102-88 road win over the Heat in the most recent game of this series. Boston covered the spread as 10.5-point favorites and held Miami to just 40.7% shooting from the field. The Heat made just nine threes in the game, while the Celtics hit 14 threes. Derrick White had a big game for the Celtics, scoring 38 points and hitting eight threes. Jayson Tatum added 20 points and 11 rebounds for Boston. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 25 points and 17 rebounds.
Boston took control of the game early, outscoring the Heat 34-24 in the first quarter and 19-12 in the second. The over/under line for the game was 204.5 points, and the teams fell 14.5 points short of that mark.
Miami has lost two straight games as the underdog and is 12-27 as the underdog this season. In the Eastern Conference, they are currently in 8th place with a record of 46-36.
The Heat’s ATS record for the season is 43-42, including going 26-15 on the road and 17-27 at home. They have failed to cover the spread in their last two road games and are 19-20 ATS as the underdog.
This season, Miami has an O/U record of 37-51 and their games have averaged 217.4 points per game compared to today’s line of 198.5. The team has hit the under in their last two games.
In their most recent game, the Heat lost to the Celtics by a score of 102-88. Miami was also the underdog in that game, getting 10.5 points. The teams combined for 190 points, which was below the O/U line of 204.5.
Miami is 27th in the league in scoring this season, at 110.1 points per game. Their production has been even worse on the road, at 107.8 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Heat are 29th in the league, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.
Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are both out for tonight’s game. Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game this season, while Rozier is averaging 19.8. Rozier is averaging 5.6 assists per game, and Butler is at 5. Tyler Herro has averaged 18.6 points per game over his last five games, hitting 40.9% of his threes in that stretch and 6.6 assists.
When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season. They are currently ranked 3rd in the league in points allowed per game at 108.0. On the road, they have been even better, giving up just 106.6 points per contest.
Over their last five games, Miami has been even stingier, allowing just 102.4 points per game. During that stretch, opponents have made 36% of their three-point attempts.
One area where the Heat have excelled is at the free-throw line. On the season, they are 3rd in the NBA, giving up just 19.2 made free-throws per contest.
The Celtics have a record of 44-38 against the spread this season and have covered in their last two games. At home, they are 23-18 ATS and 21-20 ATS on the road.
In terms of their O/U record, Boston is 44-41-1 for the season. In their last two games, the under has hit, and today’s line of 198.5 is lower than their season average of 228.1.
Boston’s ATS win streak as the favorite is at two games, and they are 42-36 ATS as the favorite this season. As the favorite, they have gone 65-17 straight-up.
Looking at their overall record, the Celtics are 64-18 and have won two straight games. In the Eastern Conference, they are in 1st place.
In their most recent game, the Celtics defeated the Heat by a score of 102-88. They were favored by 10.5 points in that game and covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 204.5.
For the season, the Celtics are the NBA’s 2nd best scoring team, at 120.6 points per game. They have been even better at home this year, averaging 122.4 points per contest. Despite being one of the league’s faster-paced teams, the Celtics are just 21st in pace, averaging 97.2 possessions per game.
Boston’s offense is heavily reliant on their three-point shooting. They are the league leaders in three-point attempts, at 42.5 per game, and are connecting on 38% of their looks from beyond the arc. Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this year, followed by Jaylen Brown at 23.0 points per contest.
So far this season, the Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking 5th in points allowed per game. They have been particularly strong at home, allowing just 107.7 points per game, which is 4th best in the NBA.
Over their last five games, Boston has been even better on the defensive end, giving up just 99.8 points per game. During this stretch, they have been particularly effective at keeping opponents off the free-throw line, giving up just 10 made free-throws per game.
One area where the Celtics have struggled defensively this season is in the steals department, ranking just 27th in the league. However, they have been excellent at protecting the rim, leading the NBA in blocked shots.
Coming in as 13.5 point favorites, our projections have the Celtics picking up a 115-111 win.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Betting Tips
- Take the Celtics on the moneyline
- On the spread, we like Heat (+13.5)
- Projecting a combined 226 points, we like the over
Boston Celtics Injury Report
- Kristaps Porzingis – Calf – Out
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler – Knee – Out
- Josh Richardson – Shoulder – Out
- Terry Rozier – Neck – Out
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. – Hip – Out
